I was a surprised at how the price of oil shot up today. The current frenzied speculation in the oil market should tell any clear thinking investor that it is time to get out of that market fast before you get burned. Prices like these cannot possibly hold up in the current economic climate.

The following chart shows oil prices since 1947 and after every major run-up, there has been a sharp decline in prices.

These jitters over Iran are frankly stupid. The Iranians have the same air defenses as the Syrians (the best Russia can sell) and these proved entirely ineffective during the Israeli Air Force bombing last September. If push comes to shove with Iran, they are a paper tiger at best. While they could lob a few missiles, they could be brought to their knees within days. The rest of the Arab world (which has no unity at all) would at best make an obligatory protest, and that would be the end of it. It is not in their interests to loose revenue for the crazy mullahs of Iran.

I give this crazy market until September 15th at best.